By AARON BEARD
Updated 3:00 AM PDT, March 19, 2026
GREENVILLE, S.C. (AP) — Brad Underwood of Illinois understands the potential pitfalls that come with being a favored team in March Madness. He recalls moments from his time coaching Stephen F. Austin, where he led them to stunning victories as a lower seed.
“We emphasize this all year,” Underwood stated before the third-seeded Illini prepared to face 14th-seeded Penn in the NCAA Tournament’s first round. “It’s not just about qualifying for the tournament; the margins are thin. Every team here has talent.”
Traditionally, lower-seeded teams have turned March into a spectacle of unexpected upsets, earning the honorary title of Cinderella. The tournament’s history shows that surprises abound, especially as top teams rely on younger NBA prospects against seasoned squads.
This year, however, fans may find it challenging to predict first-round upsets given the significant point spreads favoring the top seeds on Thursday and Friday.
This comes on the heels of a year where all four No. 1 seeds reached the Final Four—only the second occurrence since the inception of seeding in 1979.
Large Spreads
For instance, two No. 5 seeds, Wisconsin in the West and Vanderbilt in the South, were favored by at least 10.5 points at BetMGM Sportsbook ahead of Thursday, which is often a prime area for first-round surprises.
In addition, 4-seeds like Nebraska (up against Troy), Kansas (facing Cal Baptist), and Arkansas (against Hawaii) all had spreads of at least 13.5 points.
The No. 6 seed Tennessee was listed as an 11.5-point favorite over Miami (Ohio) after the RedHawks won their First Four game against SMU on Wednesday.
This is before considering the substantial spreads for the top seeds, including reigning national champion Florida (35.5-point favorite over Prairie View A&M) and Michigan (30.5-point favorite against Howard), along with 2-seeds like Purdue (25.5-point favorite over Queens) and Iowa State (24.5-point favorite against Tennessee Tech).
For these powerhouse teams, the goal is to navigate their games as adeptly as they have throughout the season.
“Every team here is competitive, so we’re not focused on being the favorites,” said Michigan’s standout, Aday Mara. “Our only concern is that a loss means going home.”
Preparation
The 2025 tournament saw Florida, Houston, Auburn, and Duke reach the Final Four—the only two occasions that all No. 1 seeds were present in the final weekend since 2008.
Just two years earlier, UConn claimed its first of two consecutive national titles in an unusual Final Four, marking a more unpredictable era since the COVID-19 pandemic affected the tournament landscape. In 2023, no 1-, 2-, or 3-seed made it to the national semifinals for the first time since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985.
Player movements through the transfer portal have seemingly dispersed experienced talent, creating opportunities for those coveted March moments. However, a new revenue-sharing era allows schools to provide greater financial incentives directly to athletes, resulting in heightened talent concentrations among top programs.
This raises questions about the prospects for underdog teams.
“So much is about mindset and approach; that sets the stage for everything else,” commented Hawaii coach Eran Ganot. “Without the right attitude, you’re at a disadvantage. We embrace challenges with humility and respect.”
“No matter who we play, we understand we are facing a championship-caliber program. We don’t complicate things by worrying about our opponents—we adopt a ‘bring it on’ mentality, knowing that it will be a tough battle. That has been our philosophy all season.”
Triggers for Upsets?
Still, unexpected variables can create chances for surprises.
Injuries have already hindered some teams, such as North Carolina (the 6-seed in the South) who lost Associated Press second-team All-American Caleb Wilson to a recent thumb injury. Similarly, BYU (6-seed in the West) lost their third-leading scorer, Richie Saunders, to a season-ending knee injury in February, increasing the burden on star freshman AJ Dybantsa.
Additionally, Alabama (4-seed in the Midwest) will face challenges as their second-leading scorer, Aden Holloway, has been indefinitely suspended following a felony drug charge.
Favorites like top-seeded Duke and fellow 1-seed Arizona face immense pressure as they rely on younger talent under the tournament’s glaring spotlight.
Betting odds favor these teams, but the essence of March Madness is its unpredictability.
“The key is recognizing that these games carry higher stakes,” remarked Blue Devils freshman point guard Cayden Boozer. “If we don’t perform at our best, we risk elimination, and we might not achieve our goals.”
AARON BEARD
Beard covers sports in North Carolina for The Associated Press, focusing on college basketball, including ACC sports and the NHL’s Carolina Hurricanes.
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